For many of us it was feeling like this summer might be the one where we could forget about COVID – at least for a while.
And today’s uptick in infection rates certainly isn’t a reason to put down the ice cream and start panicking.
But it is, perhaps, a reminder of what the experts told us all along: that COVID would continue to evolve and while the worst of it is most likely to be over, it will never be gone for good.
The latest rise in cases in today’s ONS figures is very modest compared to the surges in the Delta and Omicron waves. But like those, it could be partly driven by new sub-variants of the virus.
Most cases are now caused by the BA.2 variant of Omicron. But the ONS survey data also points to two closely related viruses, BA.4 and BA.5 rising in number as BA.2 infections fall.
There’s some evidence, like previous variants, that minor genetic changes in these viruses allow them to avoid some of our immunity to COVID – giving them a modest advantage.
There’s a very slight upward trend in hospital admissions too. But no evidence of an increase in severe illness with COVID.
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It’s probable that the Jubilee weekend will give case numbers a boost when data including the bank holiday is published.
Not just visitors piling into the capital to watch celebrations, but also the thousands mixing closer to home at street parties and services.
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But it is very much too early to forecast a significant increase in cases, let alone hospitalisations and deaths.
Levels of immunity in the population have continued to increase as Omicron has continued to circulate without masks or social distancing.
And at least 80% of those eligible for booster vaccines this spring have taken up the offer.
However, slightly fewer have taken up a spring booster dose than came forward for second doses and previous boosters.
The NHS is still asking anyone who hasn’t yet taken up the offer of an additional vaccine dose to do so.
