New CCTV footage has shown the moment a missile hit the shopping centre in Kremenchuk, providing significant context to the deadly strikes this week.
The video released by Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, confirms the centre was directly hit.
According to the CCTV timestamp, it impacted seconds before 3:52pm. The missile can be seen in individual frames of the video.
This contradicts Russia’s claim that the shopping centre was destroyed after fire spread to the building from a targeted strike on the nearby industrial area.
Defence Analyst Professor Michael Clarke told Sky News the missile used was a X-22 cruise missile: “It is designed to launch from a Tu-22 bomber. Its normal intended use is as an anti-ship missile.”
Videos from the scene show a fire spread from the northeast corner of the shopping centre, where the missile hit.
In satellite images, it appears this part of the shopping centre sustained the most damage, with the exterior walls having entirely collapsed.
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A second strike, 500 metres away
Additional footage released yesterday, filmed in Mis’ky Park, north of the first strike, shows smoke rising from the shopping centre.
A second missile strike can then be seen in the footage, this time hitting the industrial area north of the shopping centre.
Sky News has geo-located this second strike location to around 500 metres from the shopping centre.
The CCTV timestamp as the second missile hit is 3:59pm. This is seven minutes after the timestamp recorded as the first missile hit the shopping centre.
In the moments after, people in the park run away and one man jumps into the water as debris is thrown into the air.
In the screenshot above, the timestamp is wrong. This is likely an error with the camera itself. All the other cameras in the location read the same time.
The damage from this second strike can be seen on satellite images. The roof of a warehouse has collapsed, and multiple smaller structures are completely destroyed.
How accurate are these missiles?
The Ministry of Defence in London has said that Russia is using the X-22, also known as the KH-22, in Ukraine.
They say that when the missiles – designed for use against ships at sea – are used against ground targets, they are highly inaccurate.
Justin Crump, defence analyst and CEO of Sibylline, said these missiles have “radar-seeker heads designed to pick out targets in scenes of high contrast, such as a ship at sea.
“It is next to useless in a clustered urban centre, where it relies on near obsolete guidance systems to reach the target,” he said.
“The fact the other missile only just hit the boundary of the industrial site further indicates inaccuracy.
“I’d estimate 200 metre plus errors remain likely when used against this sort of urban target, versus for example a clearly defined bridge that stands out against the background.”
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
