Liz Truss has extended her lead over Rishi Sunak amongst Tory members as the final stage of the race for Number 10 gets underway.
A YouGov poll of 730 Conservative Party members taken on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning found the foreign secretary would beat the former chancellor by 62% to 38% amongst those who would vote to decide the next prime minister – a 24 percentage point lead, up from a 20 point lead two days before.
This is significant because when the last poll was published on Tuesday, the Sunak campaign had argued they had a degree of momentum and were closing the gap – but this poll reverses that trend.
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The latest survey also found 15% said they do not know how they would vote.
Ms Truss beats Mr Sunak in every age category, amongst men and women and amongst those who voted Brexit.
The only category where Mr Sunak beats Ms Truss is among 2016 Remain voters.
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This is a striking reverse, given the foreign secretary supported Remain during the referendum while the ex-chancellor campaigned for Brexit.
It marks a remarkable turnaround for Mr Sunak. He was the frontrunner during all five rounds of voting by Tory MPs, but polling suggests he is now the underdog amongst the party membership.
Ms Truss’s lead is smaller than the one enjoyed by Boris Johnson over Jeremy Hunt in the last Tory leadership contest in 2019, when he was 74% to 26% at the start of the race – and went on to win 66% to 34%.
The poll also lays bears the divide inside the Conservative Party. Some 18% say Ms Truss cannot be trusted, but 40% say the same of Mr Sunak.
And while 42% say Mr Sunak would be a poor leader, that number falls to 31% for Ms Truss.
This suggests Mr Sunak would struggle to unite the party after the leadership contest is over.
And it also also suggests the attacks by Nadine Dorries, Jacob Rees Mogg and parts of the media are rubbing off on the Tory membership.
