The UK should be prepared for a second summer of water shortages and some hosepipe bans, with a dry spring due to follow a dry winter, national advisers have warned.
The government’s climate aides have warned of an “acute risk of water shortages” if dry weather persists well into May as forecast, while farmers say crops like carrots and lettuce could run short.
“Following this dry winter, if this summer is again dry (which is expected more often due to climate change) then risks of water shortages could be even more acute,” Richard Millar, head of adaptation at the Climate Change Committee, told Sky News.
In spite of the recent snowy and wet weather, the country is still recovering from last year’s record-breaking dry weather.
Two areas of England – East Anglia and Devon, Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly – remain in “drought” status, with most now “recovering”.
This winter hasn’t helped, with February the driest in 30 years in England, and water officials warning England is just one hot and dry spell away from another drought.
Meanwhile, the group that advises the government on infrastructure problems also told Sky News a hosepipe ban was brewing in some areas, likely in the south east and east of England.
“If we continue over the next two or three months to have less rain than we might hope for, then there is a risk that in the summer we could see some [water] shortages,” Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission (NIC), said.
There is also “the potential for some water companies having to ask us to use less and perhaps to impose a hosepipe ban”, he added.
While winters are overall becoming wetter under global heating, summers are generally getting hotter and drier, though some years will vary.
But it is harder for the land and water bodies to retain water that falls in concentrated downpours at certain parts of the year.
Dry weather spells bad news for crops
The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) today warned of smaller yields of vegetables like carrots, parsnips, lettuce and some in the cabbage family if the next three months remain dry overall.
“If we end up with a dry spring and early summer, then the challenges are really going to be potentially very, very real,” NFU deputy president Tom Bradshaw told Sky News.
Some farms have been unable to fill their irrigation reservoirs sufficiently to grow certain vegetables, and therefore have scaled back their planting plans, he said.
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Some crops, like carrots, are still recovering from last year’s drought. Whereas usually the UK can grow carrots year-round, this year “we’re going to be seeing more imported carrots coming through the supply chain,” predicted Mr Bradshaw.
He called for a simplified planning system to allow farmers to build reservoirs on their land more easily.
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Plans to fight drought
The NIC estimates the UK will need an extra four billion litres of water per day by 2050, and that government investment must rise to £700m a year to protect against drought.
Plugging the leaks in the water network is part of the solution, says the NIC.
“Water companies need to cut back the leakage from their existing pipe systems… And to be fair to them, they are investing, they are getting on with that,” said NIC chair Sir John.
They are also planning for 12 new reservoirs by 2050, but these are all subject to a lengthy and complicated planning system. Previous plans for a reservoir in Oxfordshire was blocked by the Environment Agency and the government.
Industry body Water UK said companies have £14bn plans for “seven new reservoirs, the first of which is already starting construction, as well as cross-country water transfers”.
“Leakage is lower than it has ever been in history, and each company has plans in place to reduce leakage year on year to meet the ambitious sector target of reducing leakage by 50% by 2050,” a spokesperson said.
“It’s one thing to have a plan, it’s another thing to deliver it,” warned Sir John, calling for the regulator to keep the pressure on water companies to invest, and for government to set clear policies.
Household bills will likely rise too, he said. “One way or another this has to be paid for.”
Sky News has contacted the environment department with a request to comment.
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