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With Maine seemingly stuck in rain clouds for weeks, to emerge for a brief heat wave this week, our weather feels unpredictable. But, one thing is for certain – the planet is warming.
According to data from a climate visualization tool developed by a University of Maine climate scientist, recent days have been the hottest recorded globally in decades. The tool, called the Climate Reanalyzer, was developed by Sean Birkel, an assistant professor with UMaine’s Climate Change Institute and the Maine state climatologist. In a nutshell, the tool crunches data from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration to produce maps and graphs on a variety of climate data including temperatures and precipitation around the world.
According to the UMaine tool, the global daily average temperature for July 3 was 17.01 degrees Celsius or 62.6 degrees Fahrenheit. It was the first time that the temperature surpassed the 17-degree Celsius mark in the 44 years of this data set, which began in 1979.
On Tuesday, the global average temperature was even higher – 17.18 degrees Celsius or 62.9 degrees Fahrenheit. The July 4 temperature was nearly a full degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the average for 1979-2000. The global average temperature was the same on Wednesday.
Globally, and in Maine, we are seeing more high temperature records being set and the global mean temperature has trended much higher over the past 20 years, Birkle told the BDN editorial board in an interview on Wednesday.
While there is variability in climate systems on a local, regional and global level, “the overall warming trend is very clear,” Birkle said.
As one example, he said the warm season in Maine has gotten about two weeks longer while the cold season has gotten shorter.
Although scientists, including Birkel, cautioned that the assessment from the Climate Reanalyzer is not the same as on-the-ground measurements of actual temperatures, the data trend is concerning.
“A record like this is another piece of evidence for the now massively supported proposition that global warming is pushing us into a hotter future,” Stanford University climate scientist Chris Field told the Associated Press.
According to the Washington Post, 57 million people were exposed to dangerous heat in the United States on Tuesday, with the most extreme heat in the south and southwest. The Post developed an extreme heat tracker to help Americans know about and prepare for extreme heat, which kills more people in the U.S. yearly than any other weather-related hazard.
In recent days, a heat wave enveloped much of China, where the temperature was above 95 degrees Fahrenheit for nearly 10 straight days. Temperatures in the north of Africa reached 122 Fahrenheit and temperatures in Antarctica, where it is now winter, were hotter than usual, Reuters reported.
This week’s record-breaking global heat isn’t likely to be the end of the global heat wave, experts say.
Myles Allen, a professor of geosystem science at Oxford University, told the Washington Post that the world’s hottest day is likely to come in the next few months.
“When’s the hottest day likely to be? It’s going to be when global warming, El Niño and the annual cycle all line up together. Which is the next couple months,” he said in a phone interview on Wednesday. “It’s a triple whammy.”
Scientists who spoke to the Associated Press, warned that high temperatures such as these are likely to become more frequent if bolder action is not taken to deal with climate change, which is made worse by emissions of heat-trapping greenhouse gasses.
“The increasing heating of our planet caused by fossil fuel use is not unexpected, it was predicted already in the 19th century after all,” climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany, told the news agency. “But it is dangerous for us humans and for the ecosystems we depend on. We need to stop it fast.”
It’s a nice bit of home town pride that a UMaine climate visualization is getting international attention. But, the trend it is documenting should alarm us all and spur much more serious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow the warming of our planet.