A version of this article was originally published in The Daily Brief, our Maine politics newsletter. Sign up here for daily news and insight from politics editor Michael Shepherd.
Presidential years often bring large, hotly contested elections to Maine, as we saw when Democrats challenged U.S. Sen. Susan Collins with one of the nation’s biggest campaigns only to see the Republican win the state alongside President Joe Biden.
That win came on the backs of increasingly rare split-ticket voters. It is too early to make confident pronouncements, but 2024 is shaping up to be one of stasis on many fronts, from the national stage all the way down to Maine politics at the legislative level.
Somebody’s gotta win: Biden and former President Donald Trump seem to have locks on the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, respectively. That is despite underwater approval ratings and Trump’s legal troubles, now including a federal indictment on charges related to classified documents.
Mainers are not enthusiastic about either man. Biden had a staggeringly low 32 percent approval rating in a Digital Research, Inc. poll conducted this spring, which was lower than the firm ever found Trump at here. But the former president’s favorability is low nationally as well.
Assuming the former president keeps his hold on the nomination, Maine’s 2nd District should remain in play for Trump after he won it twice, but Biden would remain heavily favored statewide if today’s environment held until then.
Coming at the King: U.S. Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, is going for a third and final term at age 79. He is likely to draw a Republican challenger in the statewide race, but the silence on that front has been deafening so far. His main challenger in the 2018 race, state Sen. Eric Brakey, was months into his campaign at this point.
Look for another Republican to jump into this race to make a name for themselves, but King has seen high approval in recent years and looks safe. If he were to unexpectedly get out — as Republican Olympia Snowe did in 2012 before King won the seat — this would quickly rise in national importance.
Sleepy in CD2: U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a Democrat from the 2nd District, is always an interesting case. His Trump-friendly district will have him toward the top of the battleground House races, but he has been one of the chamber’s leading centrists and has taken more big votes this year to burnish that reputation.
House Republicans’ campaign arm is focusing heavily on Golden in yet another attempt to link him to Biden and national Democrats, but it is going to take a compelling and well-funded candidate to beat him in 2024. So far, only one candidate — former Maine Senate hopeful Robert Cross of Dedham — has declared for the race.
Team Golden won’t be sweating much yet, and it’s a sign of his blooming staying power that there are not many rumors about top-tier challengers. But others are likely to jump in by summer’s end and no Democrat can be truly safe in this part of the country.
State stasis?: The Legislature, where Maine is seeing some of the nation’s most interesting races, figures to be perennially competitive. We thought Republicans would make some progress there in 2022, but they were essentially stalemated. Keep your eyes on CNalysis, a site that pretty much nailed those outcomes and sees essentially no major gains for either party next year.
Some lawmakers have already declared for some of those big races. For example, former Rep. Michael Perkins, R-Oakland, is already a candidate for the Maine Senate seat he lost to Democrat Dave LaFountain of Waterville. There’s proof that we’re not the only ones looking ahead to 2024.
