A version of this article was originally published in The Daily Brief, our Maine politics newsletter. Sign up here for daily news and insight from politics editor Michael Shepherd.
Abortion foes decided not to challenge Gov. Janet Mills’ landmark bill on that topic with a people’s veto effort, but their public statements may lay the groundwork for a different kind of Maine campaign on abortion in 2024.
Last year, it was one of the dominant themes in Maine elections, particularly in the Democratic race against former Gov. Paul LePage and what we thought was a closely divided battle for control of the Legislature.
Democrats played the prosecuting role in that debate after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned federal abortion rights, leading Republicans to generally downplay the issue here. It may be different next time around.
The context: The anti-abortion LePage turned heads in debates when he vowed to veto a 15-week abortion ban if fellow Republicans brought it to him and later broke with every elected state-level member of his party by saying he was “fine” with Medicaid funding for abortions.
Many Republican legislative candidates said there should be no changes to abortion laws, and they weren’t alone. It was also the line of Mills and many Democrats. When the governor was asked about her agenda on the issue last September, she said Maine law “codifies Roe v. Wade, and I don’t intend to offer any changes” to abortion access provisions.
Of course, that was short-lived. In January, she unveiled a ream of abortion-rights proposals, including the most controversial one that will allow doctors to perform abortions they deem necessary past Maine’s current viability cutoff. It prompted a major showdown with the anti-abortion right, and Democrats barely got the measure through the House of Representatives.
What they’re saying: Opponents said they would not challenge the new law with a people’s veto before a Wednesday filing deadline, citing the millions that they may have to spend to gather signatures and campaign against abortion-rights groups. Rep. Laurel Libby, R-Auburn, who runs a group that mobilized against the bill, told supporters they could better deploy $200,000 to support a slate of 10 “pro-life candidates” in next year’s legislative elections.
That would be a major reversal from 2022, flipping Republicans into a different role arguing against a recent Democratic change. Public opinion has been mixed on this subject, with one poll finding majority support for Mills’ law but national polling finding low support generally for post-viability abortion.
What’s next: The last campaign over abortion rights did not go well for Republicans, with LePage lamenting the subject’s effect on his losing race at the podium on election night. Democrats would welcome another race on abortion rights at the high level in an abortion-rights state, but we have not had one over the details of abortion-related actions so far.
For now, it looks like some Republicans are leaning into it. The role it plays will depend on many factors, including what else is at the top of mind for voters next year.
