AUGUSTA, Maine — About 1 in 4 Maine voters incorrectly believe former President Donald Trump won the 2020 election, according to a poll released Thursday before Trump was booked in an Atlanta jail on charges of trying to overturn his Georgia defeat.
More than 60 percent of residents also believe Trump will be convicted in at least one of the four criminal cases he currently faces, though relatively few believe he will spend time in prison, the University of New Hampshire Survey Center’s Pine Tree State Poll of 555 Mainers found.
This survey and others reveal deep skepticism of Trump’s 2024 return bid among Maine voters at large. But 6 in 10 Republicans believe the former president’s lie that he beat President Joe Biden in the election three years ago, showing his major message is continuing to play a role in politics here.
Additionally, the survey touched on an issue Republicans have gone after Biden on: his son Hunter Biden. The poll found more than half of Mainers believe Hunter Biden, who is facing tax and firearm charges, has done something “illegal” and is receiving favorable treatment from prosecutors because he is the Democratic president’s son.
The online survey was conducted between Aug. 17 and Monday, with a margin of error of roughly 4 percent. Democrats made up 43 percent, Republicans made up 39 percent and independents wer 18 percent of respondents.
Despite Trump’s pending criminal cases related to allegedly mishandling classified documents, seeking to overturn the 2020 election in the run-up to the violent Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riot, making hush money payments to a porn actor and trying to reverse his election defeat in Georgia, he remains the clear Republican favorite to take on Biden again next year.
The Pine Tree State Poll found 26 percent of Mainers believe that Trump won the 2020 election, despite verified results and Congress certifying Biden’s victory. Sixty-two percent of Mainers believe Biden won, while 12 percent are unsure, per the poll.
The split was clear among Mainers based on whom they voted for in 2020, with 99 percent of Biden voters saying Biden won and 80 percent of Trump voters saying either that Trump won or they are unsure. Among those who voted for other 2020 candidates or did not vote, 50 percent said they are unsure, 31 percent said Biden won and 19 percent said Trump won.
The Maine findings echo a national poll from earlier this summer that found 30 percent of Americans still believe election fraud led to Biden’s victory.
No polling has been done on which GOP candidates Maine voters support for 2024, though some indicated in recent interviews they may consider entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump. But Trump remains the GOP frontrunner in national polls and skipped Wednesday’s first presidential debate, instead doing an interview with Tucker Carlson posted on social media at the same time.
On the indictments, 64 percent of Maine residents said they think Trump has committed a crime in at least one of the four cases, but only 20 percent believe he will spend at least one day in prison. More than two-thirds of Mainers do not think it is likely he will serve prison time.
Lastly, the survey asked about Hunter Biden, whom House Republicans are focused on due to probes into his business dealings as well as a scrapped plea deal. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-California, has also floated a potential impeachment inquiry into the current president tied in part to allegations the Justice Department has treated the Biden family differently while investigating Hunter Biden.
The poll found 52 percent of Mainers believe Hunter Biden has done something “illegal,” 24 percent believe he has done something “unethical” but not illegal, 23 percent are unsure and 1 percent think he has done “nothing wrong.”
Broken down by party affiliation, 89 percent of Maine Republicans, 62 percent of independents and 18 percent of Democrats think he has done something illegal.
The poll also indicated 58 percent of Mainers think Hunter Biden is “definitely” or “probably” receiving favorable treatment from prosecutors because his father is president, while 35 percent think he is not receiving favorable treatment and 7 percent are unsure.
