AUGUSTA, Maine — Maine will likely see more than $100 million in political ad spending from this year through the 2024 election cycle, a national ad tracking firm said.
That will not top the state’s total during the last presidential election cycle in 2020, when the U.S. Senate race in which U.S. Sen. Susan Collins held off Democrat Sara Gideon alone shattered state records thanks to more than $200 million in spending.
But Maine’s projected $102 million in spending for the 2023 and 2024 cycle will contribute to an expected national total of $10.2 billion, which would be the most expensive political cycle of all time nationally, according to an AdImpact report released this week.
A breakdown of projected spending by political race and medium was not immediately available for Maine, although the major race here figures to be in the swing 2nd Congressional District. AdImpact said it expects record spending nationally due to the presidential election, “razor-thin margins in Congress” and “tremendous growth” in legislative and referendum elections.
Maine is not like neighboring New Hampshire in terms of hosting a first-in-the-nation presidential primary, with the Granite State expected to draw $267 million in total ad spending and $128 million solely for the 2024 presidential race that will likely see a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
But White House seekers do not ignore the Pine Tree State, given that it is one of two states that allocates electors by congressional district. Biden carried the state in 2020 and earned three electoral votes, Trump won the state’s 2nd District both then and in 2016.
Biden also visited Maine earlier this summer to tout his economic agenda at a manufacturing facility in Auburn, while Trump made stops in the state in 2020.
Some of Maine’s ad spending for the 2023-2024 cycle will likely come from the spots already airing in a closely-watched referendum battle that could see voters replace the state’s two largest utilities with a public utility overseen by an elected board.
The 2nd Congressional District race between U.S. Rep. Jared Golden, a centrist Democrat, and a to-be-determined Republican challenger could also start to draw more spending, as it is on the radar of national GOP officials who view Golden as vulnerable. Nearly $32 million was spent by candidates and outside groups in Golden’s 2022 race against former U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin.
The Maine Legislature is one of the top state-level battlegrounds in the nation. More than $6 million was spent by Democratic and Republican outside groups in the 2022 elections for the state House and Senate. About $1 million went toward the Aroostook County race won by Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, whose party held both chambers.
U.S. Sen. Angus King, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, is seeking a third term that would make him Maine’s oldest senator in history. No Republicans have entered the race, and Brunswick consultant David Costello is the sole Democratic candidate so far.
