A version of this article was originally published in The Daily Brief, our Maine politics newsletter. Sign up here for daily news and insight from politics editor Michael Shepherd.
Maine is building far more housing than it has over the past decade. Yet it is well short of the increasing demand that has contributed to dueling affordability and homelessness crises marking the pandemic era.
Those sets of facts should be underscored by a landmark report on Maine’s housing needs that will be released Wednesday by the administration of Gov. Janet Mills and MaineHousing, the state housing authority. Greg Payne, the governor’s housing adviser, teased it to lawmakers last month, and it will be unveiled ahead of a statewide conference in Portland.
The context: It will provide the first comprehensive look at the need since before the pandemic. A study released last year said Maine was short by approximately 9,000 housing units, and nearly all of them were in southern Maine. Home values statewide have risen 58 percent between January 2020 and last month, according to Zillow data.
That means the need should be dramatically higher now. One of the interesting things about this is that we are at a housing peak of sorts. Maine permitted nearly 9 percent more privately owned units last year than it did in 2021. Nationally, we saw notably higher housing peaks in the 1960s, 1980s and early 2000s, yet production is still recovering to a large degree.
Balancing act: It is becoming clear what we’re doing now is not enough. That is where the political peril begins. A housing overhaul from the Democratic-led Legislature that was signed into law by Mills last year makes major changes including allowing two units on lots now zoned for one and allowing in-law apartments by right.
But lawmakers had to strip controversial provisions opposed by cities and towns, including a prohibition on local housing caps. Maine has a long history of local control, and lawmakers are reluctant to wade into the politics of municipal zoning.
Yet this is where the most crucial decisions are made on housing of all types, from single-family construction to affordable developments. Opposition to the housing reforms emanated from the Portland suburbs that are increasingly desirable but have restrictions in place.
It led to a strange political situation in which most Democrats were making market-based arguments for the bill, while most Republicans saw it as a breach of local control. The conservative Maine Policy Institute embodied that position when it said cities and towns are too tight with zoning yet argued for a governor’s veto, saying it would wrongly centralize planning.
What’s next: The upshot here is that it is clear that Maine needs new housing, particularly in the booming southern region. But there is no clear prescription to force that change at the state level. It means the new data coming this week will come with hard questions for officials about what they are going to do about this.
