AUGUSTA, Maine — Maine comes well after neighboring New Hampshire when it comes to holding presidential nominating races, but voters here have often not followed Granite State voters in their choices.
Maine and New Hampshire have only supported the same candidates in five out of 13 contested nominating races not featuring incumbents dating back to 1988, when Republican George H.W. Bush and Democrat Michael Dukakis, who both had New England ties, won both states.
The states last backed the same primary candidate in a truly contested primary in 2016, when Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders won New Hampshire’s Democratic primary and Maine’s caucuses. That year, Maine backed Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas instead of Donald Trump for the Republican nomination, a difference most likely attributable to the caucus system used here.
Sanders won the Democratic nod again in New Hampshire in 2020, but Joe Biden won Maine, which voted on Super Tuesday three weeks after its neighboring state and following the exits of several candidates the weekend preceding the election. That day propelled Biden to the nomination and to the presidency.
This year may feature little primary drama. The main question Tuesday for New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation Republican primary is whether former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley can continue her campaign by beating former President Donald Trump, who has otherwise remained the clear frontrunner in a Republican field winnowed down to just the two contenders.
If Haley falls short in New Hampshire, Trump will almost certainly have the nomination locked down with more than nine months until the November election, when he will likely face a rematch with Biden. (The president is not on Tuesday’s ballot in New Hampshire due to a dispute over national party rules, but he is likely to win as a write-in candidate.)
Maine’s presidential primary is not until March 5, when more than a dozen states vote on Super Tuesday. The intrigue may be low, however, unless a Haley upset or Trump’s legal troubles and pending appeals to stay on the ballot in Maine and Colorado have changed things by then.
