Executives at three asset management firms agreed during a Feb. 13 panel discussion that pending spot Ethereum ETFs have a 50% chance of approval this May.
Matt Hougan, Global Head of Research for Bitwise Asset Management, said
“I think it’s probable we will get an ETH ETF reasonably soon. I think there’s a 50/50 chance by May … “
Steve Kurz, Global Head of Galaxy Asset Management, agreed that there is a 50% chance of a spot Ethereum ETF approval by May. He also predicted a 75% chance by the end of 2024.
Dave LaValle, Global Head of ETFs at Grayscale, also placed approval odds at 50% by May. On whether Grayscale would sue the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the event of a rejection, LaValle said: “We’ll have to wait and see how it plays out. We have to look at the facts.”
Grayscale previously compelled the SEC to review its spot Bitcoin ETF application through legal action. The SEC cited the case as one reason for approving spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.
The 50% odds expressed by each executive broadly align with other predictions. JP Morgan member Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes there is a 50% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF will be approved in May. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart — a colleague of Eric Balchunas, who hosted today’s panel discussion — has predicted 60% approval odds. Finally, a Polymarket prediction market suggests that approval odds by the end of May are 48%.
Eight firms intend to offer an ETH ETF
Of the three firms listed above, only Grayscale and Galaxy (in partnership with Invesco) have a spot Ethereum ETF application pending with regulators.
Other spot Ethereum ETF applicants include VanEck, ARK and 21Shares, Hashdex, BlackRock (iShares), Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton.
The SEC must approve or reject VanEck’s application by May 23. Though it will not necessarily approve the fund, it will likely decide on other similar applications at the same time.
No spot Ethereum ETF exists on the US market at present. Bitwise currently offers two Ethereum futures ETFs, which do not provide exposure to the spot Ethereum market. Grayscale offers an Ethereum Trust and an Ethereum Futures Trust, both of which it intends to convert to ETFs. Many other asset managers also offer Ethereum futures ETFs.
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