AUGUSTA, Maine — The fate of a bill that would put Maine among more than a dozen states aiming to nullify the Electoral College will likely come down to a few Democrats in the House of Representatives.
The bill that would put Maine among 16 states and Washington, D.C., seeking to replace the Electoral College with electing the president by a national popular vote, or NPV, is similar to one failed in 2019. It could pass the Democratic-led Legislature this year behind a bipartisan coalition.
The measure will likely be decided by a handful of Democrats in the House, including rural lawmakers who have been worried that Maine and other small states would lose their influence in deciding presidential elections. This group sank a similar measure in 2019.
But several past holdouts said they are supportive of this year’s proposal from Rep. Arthur Bell, D-Yarmouth. A poll released Sunday by the lobbying firm Maine Street Solutions, which works for a national group pushing the initiative, found 72 percent of nearly 800 surveyed Mainers favor the national popular vote.
“We’ve all seen in multiple ways how votes don’t count anymore because of the Electoral College,” said House Majority Leader Mo Terry, D-Gorham. “To me, that’s unfair.”
Terry had initially opposed a similar 2019 proposal that passed the Senate but was defeated in the House by a 76-66 margin, with 21 Democrats opposing it at first before several switched their stances on a later vote. Terry said she has changed course after receiving “a ream of letters” in support of the plan from hundreds of constituents, including many young people.
Bell’s measure, which awaits House and Senate votes after receiving a split recommendation from the Veterans and Legal Affairs Committee, would have Maine join an interstate compact awarding presidential electors based on the winner of the national popular vote.
The compact would only take effect if states accounting for at least 270 electors — the number needed to win the presidency with a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes — adopt it. The states that have so far adopted it — including Vermont, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island in New England — only represent 205 votes, meaning 65 additional votes are needed.
Maine only has four electors. Since 1972, the state has split two electoral votes by congressional district, with two additional at-large votes going to the statewide popular vote winner. Nebraska is the only other state with a similar system.
In 2016, former President Donald Trump became the fifth president in history to get elected without winning the popular vote. He lost Maine in that election and to President Joe Biden four years later, but he won the 2nd Congressional District in both of those elections.
Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, has not weighed in on this year’s bill that is mostly backed by Democrats. Most Republicans have otherwise opposed popular vote efforts, but one notable sponsor is Sen. Matt Pouliot, R-Augusta, who has long backed the idea.
In 2019, former Gov. Paul LePage claimed the proposal would silence “white people” and that it would be “the minorities that would elect.” Save Our States, a national group opposing popular vote legislation, believes it “creates new possibilities that judges would decide future elections,” executive director Trent England said.
“Really, no American wants those kinds of outcomes,” England said.
Five Democrats on the legislative committee voted to advance Bell’s bill with technical tweaks, five Republicans opposed it and three Democrats — Sens. Craig Hickman of Winthrop, and Stacy Brenner of Scarborough, plus Rep. Karen Montell of Gardiner — backed Hickman’s version that would put it to voters via a referendum.
That split report could spell trouble for the legislation if not enough Democrats are on board with one version. Rep. Scott Landry, D-Farmington, opposed the 2019 proposal over concerns small states like Maine would lose importance in presidential elections.
“And I haven’t changed my mind,” Landry said Monday.
Other members are still undecided on the bill, including Rep. Traci Gere, D-Kennebunkport, who said she hasn’t “taken a close look at it.” But Rep. Allison Hepler, D-Woolwich, a retired history professor who opposed the last bill, said she now supports it after doing more reading and feeling a need to “overcome gerrymandering and other efforts that stifle” direct democracy.
“NPV isn’t perfect, but I feel like it’s time for the conversation in Maine to move forward,” she said.
