The BDN Opinion section operates independently and does not set news policies or contribute to reporting or editing articles elsewhere in the newspaper or on bangordailynews.com
Amy Fried is a retired political science professor at the University of Maine. Her views are her own and do not represent those of any group with which she is affiliated.
If I had written a column a year ago laying out what was likely to happen in 2024, it would have missed many matters big and small, political and personal.
I could not have known that President Joe Biden would have an awful debate performance with Donald Trump and end up withdrawing from the campaign. I could not have known that a very good person I know would die suddenly in a car accident.
Still, there are some strong possibilities about what will happen in the next year.
One, I expect that Republicans in Washington, D.C. will continue to find it hard to govern. We caught a glimpse of this in how the Republican-controlled House handled budgetary matters a few weeks ago.
After a bipartisan continuing resolution was negotiated, Elon Musk took to his social media platform to rail against it; then it failed, with 38 Republicans voting against it. And while a government shutdown was averted, with funding extended, Trump’s demand for the debt ceiling to be “pushed out two years, to January 30, 2027” was ignored, despite him threatening to mount primary challenges against Republicans.
Rep. Mike Johnson’s speakership very likely will be challenged, leaving the chaotic House Republican caucus to use its bare majority to pick his replacement. If that takes a while, congressional scholars are not certain how the House would do basic things like swear in new members and count electoral votes. All this suggests it will be hard to pass new laws and a shutdown could still come, although it’s likely they can do another trickle-down tax cut.
Second, Republican divisions over immigration will probably increasingly divide their party.
Over the weekend Vivek Ramaswamy, who is co-chairing the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, which is not an actual part of the U.S. government, with Musk, defended H-1B visas for immigrant tech workers by insulting Americans, saying “American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence.” Musk joined in, agreeing with a post on X that referred to Americans as intellectually disabled compared to foreign workers hired under those visas.
Strong Trump backers such as Laura Loomer, Steve Bannon and Ann Coulter criticized Musk and Ramaswamy, leading Musk to suggest critics should do something vulgar and to say, “I will go to war on this issue the likes of which you cannot possibly comprehend.”
Bannon then wrote, “Someone please notify ‘Child Protective Services’—need to do a ‘wellness check’ on this toddler.” Various MAGA figures reported their status on X, which Musk owns, was downgraded to the point of censorship because they disagreed with Musk on immigration.
Meanwhile, since about half of the agricultural workforce and a large percentage of meatpackers are undocumented, what Politico calls “MAGA farmers” don’t want those workers deported, creating further conflicts among Trump supporters.
There will be no way to please all Republicans on immigration in 2025.
Third, while they have their own political divisions, Democrats will have opportunities for strong midterm elections in two years. When tariffs, a trade war and large scale deportations likely cause economic problems, it won’t be hard to blame Trump and Republicans.
Candidates, party leaders and activists will start strategizing in earnest next year.
Flipping the House is a real possibility. However, Democrats winning back a Senate majority is harder because of the composition of the Senate and which seats are up, including the one in Maine.
Defeating Sen. Susan Collins is difficult, although not impossible. Over her many races, Collins has honed her campaign message and approach and that was enough in her last race, in a good Democratic year, to get her 51 percent of the vote.
A complication for Maine Democrats is that there are two statewide races in 2026, the governorship and the U.S. Senate seat. Ambitious candidates might choose to run in the gubernatorial primary and so wouldn’t challenge Collins. We should get a sense of those dynamics in 2025.
Many surprises will certainly be in store, some good and some bad. And so the easiest prediction to make is that 2025 will be unpredictable for people I know and care about, myself, and the political and policy world. Let us all go into this year with hope, resolve, care for others and a commitment to do something to move us forward.
