Crypto bettors on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, have placed an 87% probability on the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Litecoin-based exchange-traded fund (ETF) this year.
Optimism surged after the SEC initiated a public comment phase for the proposed Canary Litecoin ETF.
According to the agency’s Jan. 29 filing, the public has 21 days from the document’s publication in the Federal Register to provide feedback. These responses will influence the regulator’s decision to approve the fund.
Following the comment period, the SEC has up to 45 days to issue a decision, though it can extend this timeframe to 90 days if necessary. The regulator must approve, deny, or begin a more detailed review process to determine the ETF’s fate.
Litecoin ETF progress
Market observers have pointed out that the SEC’s engagement with the Litecoin ETF signals a potential shift in its approach to crypto-based investment products.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that this is the first altcoin ETF to reach this stage, indicating meaningful progress in the approval process. However, whether the SEC will expedite its decision or take the full 240-day review period remains uncertain.
He wrote:
“[The] first altcoin 19b-4 to be acknowledged, rest were told to withdraw by Genz SEC. Throw in the comments from the SEC on the S-1, and this filing is by far the furthest along checking all the boxes. [The question] now is will this SEC wait the full 240 days or approve more rapidly.”
In the past, under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler, the agency delayed crypto ETF approvals, often pushing decisions to the final deadline.
Since Gensler’s departure, the regulatory environment has changed. Acting Chair Mark Uyeda has taken a more open stance on crypto-related financial products, encouraging a wave of ETF applications for assets beyond Bitcoin, including XRP, Solana, and even memecoins like the TRUMP token.
LTC rallies
Speculation around the ETF’s approval has fueled a strong rally in Litecoin’s price and improved network activity.
CryptoSlate data shows LTC climbing 14% in the past 24 hours and 15% over the past week, reaching $128 at the time of writing. This makes it the best-performing asset among the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization during this period.
Blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock pointed out that on-chain metrics indicate rising user activity and network strength. According to the firm, Litecoin currently has 8.1 million addresses and an average of 350,000 daily active users, surpassing networks like Cardano and Avalanche in engagement.
Additionally, retail investors hold over half of all LTC in circulation, reflecting a strong grassroots user base.
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