Bitwise Asset Management’s Weekly Crypto Market Compass – opens with a stark assessment: “With political pressure mounting on Powell and the dollar falling, Bitcoin’s outperformance reflects growing structural divergence from risk assets.” That single line distils the essence of the cryptocurrency’s run over the last few days, hitting $88,800 today—its highest print since early March—and frames the narrative around a weakening US dollar, and a distinct shift in investor psychology.
Why Is Bitcoin Price Up?
The note points first to the macro backdrop. A US Dollar Index sliding below 98.5 “amid growing speculation that President Trump may seek to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell” has undermined demand for dollar‑denominated stores of value. Bitwise cites National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who told reporters that the administration is “actively exploring” the removal of Powell—language the firm characterises as a public assault on monetary independence that “is beginning to reward sovereign‑free stores of value.”
Against that political theatre, Bitcoin’s statistical profile has become conspicuously defensive. Month‑to‑date the currency is up more than 7%, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both down between 7% and 9%. The report calls the gap “early‑stage decoupling” and illustrates it with a chart in which the orange Bitcoin line bends decisively upward as the two equity indices turn lower.
On‑chain data reinforce the impression that the bid is coming from strategic rather than speculative capital. “Over 63.5% of Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for at least a year,” the analysts write, adding that long‑term‑holder supply has climbed to a year‑to‑date high of 69%. Exchange balances continue to grind lower; at 2.60 million BTC they are now at a multi‑year low, a trend the desk attributes to “whales removing a further ‑260,455 BTC” during the last weekly interval. These numbers, Bitwise argues, “underscore strong conviction among long‑term holders” even as short‑term traders fade in importance.
Derivatives markets echo that tone. BTC futures open interest expanded by “around +15.8 k BTC” and perpetual open interest by “+10.7 k BTC,” while the three‑month annualised basis widened to 5.7%, up from 5.2% the previous week. Funding rates on perpetual swaps stayed positive, indicating that traders are paying a premium to maintain long exposure. Meanwhile, at‑the‑money implied volatility for one‑month options sits near 49% per annum—a level the firm describes as “modest” in historical context and therefore not suggestive of froth.
Spot‑market flows provide a nuanced but broadly supportive picture. Global crypto ETPs experienced net outflows of roughly $30 million last week, a sharp deceleration from the prior week’s exodus of $835 million. Crucially, US spot Bitcoin ETFs bucked the trend, attracting US $15.8 million in fresh capital. Bitwise’s own BITB took in $23.8 million, while Grayscale’s GBTC registered no change and BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed a healthy $186.5 million.
Notably, $381 million flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday. These are record inflows since February.
These allocations come on top of corporate treasury demand: Japanese public company Metaplanet added 330 BTC at an average cost of $85,605, lifting its holdings near the $420 million threshold, and Strategy Inc. disclosed the purchase of 6,556 BTC for roughly $556 million.
Not all industry news is benign. The Compass devotes a full page to the mining sector, noting that “hashprice is at all‑time lows” just as the US government prepares tariffs of up to 46% on ASIC rigs imported from Southeast Asia. With an estimated 40% of global hashrate located in the United States, those levies threaten to squeeze a segment already wrestling with thinning profit margins.
Some operators, such as Bitfufu and Bitdeer, are redeploying machines to Ethiopia, Norway and Bhutan; others, including Riot and CleanSpark, moved shipments forward to beat the deadline. The report warns that public companies holding Bitcoin on balance‑sheet “crowd out” miners by offering investors price exposure without operational risk or large capital expenditures.
Yet the firm’s central conclusion is unambiguous: the macro forces that have lifted Bitcoin off its March lows remain intact. “Bitcoin outperformed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq this month,” the authors remind readers, “as US dollar dominance shows signs of erosion.” Their proprietary Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has shifted from −0.23 to +0.21, its first positive reading in two months, even as breadth remains narrow—only 20% of tracked altcoins beat Bitcoin last week. In Bitwise’s interpretation, concentrated leadership is not a weakness but a sign that “capital is being re‑allocated toward assets perceived as sovereign‑free macro hedges.”
The final paragraph of the Compass captures the firm’s thesis in a phrase that reads like a coda to this week’s price action: “With portfolios globally diversifying away from dollar‑denominated assets, Bitcoin’s positioning as a sovereign‑free macro hedge and emerging store of value is helping it absorb a growing share of institutional allocations.” For now, Bitcoin’s ascendancy is less about momentum or retail enthusiasm than about a crisis of confidence in the monetary regime that underpins the global financial architecture. As that edifice wobbles, Bitwise sees investors reaching for the one asset that, by design, has no central bank at all.
At press time, BTC traded at $88,861.
