A version of this article was originally published in The Daily Brief, our Maine politics newsletter. Sign up here for daily news and insight from politics editor Michael Shepherd.
It is not fun to be a Republican in Augusta these days, with Democrats in the Legislature summarily killing virtually all of the minority party’s biggest priorities in their third-straight term of full State House control.
Despite those frustrations, Maine Republicans had a decent Tuesday from the ballot box to the legislative floors. Here’s what to take away from it.
The context: In the House, one reinforcement is coming as the Legislature races to finish up work after Rep.-elect Abden Simmons of Waldoboro flipped a seat along the midcoast. It was the first time since 2015 that Republicans have taken a special election in a competitive area.
The party is also starting to build some coalitions with moderate Democrats on the floors. House Speaker Rachel Talbot Ross, D-Portland, and fellow progressives failed to get a 72-hour waiting period on gun purchases through the House, and Gov. Janet Mills signaled opposition to a $15 minimum wage that cleared the House and then sailed through the Senate.
It is becoming a little bit of a theme on some of the biggest issues in Augusta. Mills also looks cool to a paid family and medical leave proposal that Republicans and business interests oppose, although progressives have a trump card in a 2024 referendum drive that they could move at any time.
But wait: We are grading Republicans on a curve here. They are only able to affect policy when they align with the governor or when Democrats peel off from their party. That’s why Mills and fellow Democrats are poised to push through an abortion-rights bill that Republicans have vociferously opposed.
That means many more losses to come for Republicans, who are not going to be able to get many of their priorities through. Simmons gives them one more vote in a chamber that has seen close margins, including a minimum wage bill that got through the House 71-70 at first. Every vote matters, especially on late nights when lawmakers duck out.
Maine Republican Party Chair Joel Stetkis issued a statement arguing that Simmons’ victory was a rebuke of Mills and Democrats, but it is probably best to not read much into special elections no matter who wins, since they are marked by odd timing and low turnout. This was a race that Republicans should have had, and they only won by 4 percentage points.
Former Rep. Clinton Collamore, D-Waldoboro, won the seat in 2022 against a little-known Republican challenger despite Mills losing the Republican-leaning district to former Gov. Paul LePage. Collamore resigned in February after facing signature fraud charges related to his campaign, and Simmons was just coming off a Maine Senate race. His opponent, former Rep. Wendy Pieh, D-Bremen, came from the district’s smallest town and last served in 2008.
The lesson: Republicans have still broken a losing streak, they have one more member to help them and they are figuring out how to influence some major items in Augusta. When you have been in the minority this long, that’s a fairly good day.