A version of this article was originally published in The Daily Brief, our Maine politics newsletter. Sign up here for daily news and insight from politics editor Michael Shepherd.
Maine has long been known as a relative haven for independent politicians. But there is now somewhat of a showdown involving a group trying to be a factor in next year’s elections.
That is No Labels, which is trying to go from a centrist advocacy group to a loosely defined political party. It is trying to gain ballot access ahead of the 2024 election, allowing it the option of putting up an alternative to President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump if they emerge from the Democratic and Republican primaries.
Part of its effort includes new ads implicitly targeting Maine’s elections chief, giving Maine a unique view of No Labels’ nascent political activity.
The context: No Labels has met 2024 ballot requirements in 10 states to date, not including Maine, where it is trying to organize now. In May, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democrat, sent a cease-and-desist letter to No Labels after her office got complaints that people who enrolled in the nascent party thought they were simply signing a petition.
Bellows’ office also mailed notices to the 6,000 or so newly minted No Labels members to ensure they meant to join the party, something that would prohibit them from participating in the state’s 2024 Republican and Democratic presidential primaries that will be newly open to unenrolled voters.
No Labels has rejected any assertion that it misled voters and said circulators made clear that it was a party initiative. It has targeted Bellows by saying the notices were unprecedented.
Last week, it began running social media ads targeted to Maine in which former U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut, the group’s founding chairman, hit “partisan Maine officials” for “trying to suppress the No Labels movement.”
Political fallout: Democrats are suspicious of No Labels, citing past contributions from Harlan Crow, a Republican megadonor who has recently made headlines for funding expensive trips for Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.
The risk they see is that a No Labels candidate could tilt the race against Biden, although some polling has contradicted the idea that it would move the needle. Maine has had these kinds of “spoiler” debates before, most famously after the 2010 and 2014 plurality elections of former Gov. Paul LePage in multi-candidate fields.
They prompted the state to become the first to introduce ranked-choice voting that also now applies to presidential elections, but the method did not do much to drive support toward the lesser-known White House candidates here in 2020.
What’s next: Before No Labels makes a difference, it needs to find a longshot candidate. One potential hopeful, Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minnesota, ruled out a 2024 run on Monday. Centrist Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, has fueled speculation that he could head up a ticket.
History tells us that it is probably a longshot that No Labels comes up with a candidate who could affect the outcome of next year’s race. But Maine has a unique view of the nascent effort given Bellows’ actions so far, and the response to No Labels here could be a good preview of how their national push will play out.
