After being 100 percent correct Week 6, the results of Week 7 totally surprised me, with Brewer, Skowhegan, Lawrence and Dexter all upending my predictions.
With the playoff circuit starting over the next few weeks, the excitement — and unpredictability — of high school football is peaking at the perfect time.
Based on results from the past several weeks, and factors such as home field advantage, here are my predictions for eight North games happening this weekend.
Medomak Valley at Oceanside
Prediction: Oceanside 38, Medomak 28
This matchup between reigning regional champions Medomak (6-1) and up-and-coming Oceanside (7-0) is Class C North’s biggest game of the year. Both sides have star-studded senior classes, and this matchup will be a treat to watch. Medomak dispatched Oceanside 35-32 last year, but these Mariners have improved on both sides of the ball, and could very well get to 8-0 on Thursday night in Rockland.
Bangor at Noble
Prediction: Noble 34, Bangor 21
Southern football teams are generally more feared than northern teams, and Noble has the best record in Class A South. The Knights will be a major test for the Rams, who are a solid 4-3 but have struggled with consistency — especially on the road — all season. The Rams have handled teams like Lawrence and Skowhegan at home, but have also lost big to Cony and Windham away. Bangor could definitely score a few TDs on Noble, but probably not enough to win.
No. 7 Ellsworth/Sumner at No. 2 Bucksport
Prediction: Bucksport 44, Ellsworth 32
On paper, 5-2 Bucksport should easily handle 1-6 Ellsworth, but this playoff game between two Hancock County opponents could be closer than expected. Bucksport is coming off a loss to 4-3 Dexter in which it scored an uncharacteristically low 22 points, and Ellsworth managed to score 34 points on the Golden Bucks last time around. In the end, though, Bucksport will probably advance.
Nokomis at Hermon
Prediction: Hermon 32, Nokomis 20
After starting the season 1-3 and losing two key running backs to injuries, Hermon has suddenly won three straight. The Hawks have their eyes on a third consecutive appearance in the regional final, and need this win over 3-4 Nokomis to lock down home field advantage in the playoffs next week. The Warriors will counter with a tough ground attack featuring star sophomore Seth Bowden, but Hermon’s running game is simply more established.
No. 5 Dexter/Piscataquis at No. 4 Houlton/Hodgdon
Prediction: Houlton 46, Dexter 40
Dexter at Houlton is easily eight-player small North’s most exciting first round playoff game. Dexter is a ground-and-pound team with a dangerous play-action game, and Houlton has a mobile quarterback running a very dynamic offense. Both sides are 4-3 this season, even though Dexter was last year’s No. 1 seed and Houlton was the No. 6 seed. Ultimately, I think Houlton will emerge victorious this weekend since they’re avoiding travel and also beat Dexter 52-38 in Week 3.
Lewiston at Windham
Prediction: Windham 28, Lewiston 14
This game has major playoff implications for the Rams, and their fans should be rooting for Windham. The Lewiston Blue Devils (3-4) are right behind Bangor (4-3) in the Class A North standings, and have the tiebreaker for that fourth and final playoff spot. Fortunately for the Rams, 4-3 Windham is a proven team with some impressive wins over mutual opponents. Marcus Tillery and the Eagles should be able to run over Lewiston at home on Friday.
Belfast at Maine Central Institute
Prediction: Belfast 28, MCI 13
Belfast and MCI are two teams that used to be Class C staples, now trying to turn their programs around in Class D. So far, Belfast’s rebuild has come along faster, with the Lions even going on a three-game winning streak earlier this season. Belfast’s defense is stingier than MCI’s, and should be able to mitigate the Huskies’ attack on the road this Friday.
Gardiner at Cony
Prediction: Cony 38, Gardiner 21
Cony and Gardiner are both 4-3, but are headed in different directions. Gardiner was a surprise factor in September — starting the season 4-1 after only winning four games all last year — but has since lost big to Cheverus and Skowhegan. Cony meanwhile started its season 1-3 after going 7-3 last year, and has since rattled off three wins in a row. The Rams are a perennial contender, and now that they’re fully healthy are not going away easily.
