The One Nation group of centrist Tory MPs have said they will vote for Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda bill despite their “concerns” it disapplies the Human Rights Act.
It comes as a boost to the prime minister’s authority after MPs on the right of the party earlier today suggested they may not support the legislation, aimed at reviving the stalled deportation scheme.
However the One Nation caucus, made up of around 100 MPs, warned they would oppose any amendments that would risk the UK breaching the rule of law and its international obligations – something rival factions have called for.
Sky News’s political editor Beth Rigby said this means even if the bill is passed tomorrow, it only “kicks the blow up further down the road”.
She told the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge: “The prime minister has chosen an issue where his party is irreconcilably divided between the left and the right on whether to leave the European Convention on Human Rights and break international law to get these flights off the ground.
“He is trying to chart a narrow path in the middle and while MPs are saying they might back it on second reading, you have one side saying amend it and we might not back it again, and another side saying if you don’t amend it we can’t support this legislation.”
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The One Nation group said it remains concerned about any future amendments that would mean the government breaching the rule of law and its international obligations, and would oppose such amendments in the House of Commons.
But for now, it has indicated it won’t stage a major rebellion when the law goes to a vote in parliament tomorrow during its second reading tomorrow.
Damian Green MP, Chair of the One Nation group said: “We have taken the decision that the most important thing at this stage is to support the bill despite our real concerns.
“We strongly urge the government to stand firm against any attempt to amend the bill in a way that would make it unacceptable to those who believe that support for the rule of law is a basic Conservative principle.”
It takes 29 MPs to vote against, or 57 MPs to abstain, for Mr Sunak’s flagship legislation to be rejected – with no clarity on whether he could survive such a defeat in practice.
While the statement from the One Nation group will be a relief – it does not mean the fight to get the bill passed is over.
Earlier today, the Brexiteer European Research Group (ERG) said the legislation had “so many holes in it” that the consensus from this wing of the party was to “pull the bill” and put forward a “revised version that works better”.
They have yet to say how they will vote on it and are meeting tonight to discuss the matter.
A meeting convened by the right-wing New Conservatives also met on the parliamentary estate on Monday evening, with over 20 MPs in attendance at the office of backbencher Danny Kruger.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak revealed the new law last week in an attempt to revive the scheme that would see asylum seekers arriving by small boat crossings deported to the African nation, after the Supreme Court ruled in November that it was unlawful.
The bill declares the African nation as safe and allows ministers to disapply the Human Rights Act to limit appeals against people being removed from the UK.
Politics Reporter
Just 29 Tory MPs need to vote against the bill – or 57 need to abstain – to kill it off.
We know there are around 100 MPs represented by the so-called “five families” of right-wing Tory factions, who have been the most vocal over stopping the boats.
Clearly, if all those MPs voted against or abstained on Tuesday, the bill would be toast.
But although they are often grouped together, it does not guarantee each faction will team up and come to the same conclusion.
At least two of the groups did not attend the ERG’s meeting this morning (despite being invited) to discuss the legal conclusions they had come to.
Also, even when a faction decides which way to vote, not all its signatories are guaranteed to follow suit. One member of the ERG has already publicly said he will vote for the bill, despite its flaws.
But remember, these aren’t the only groups on the Tory backbenchers, and Mr Sunak will need to keep in mind the more liberal One Nation collective too.
They also represent around 100 MPs. Tonight they have recommended members back the bill – though of course some may choose not to.
And even if they do, it does not mean the fight is over – as they have said they won’t support any changes to toughen up the bill – something those on the right are calling for.
With around 200 MPs still debating their position with just 24 hours to go, its understandable why Mr Sunak might be nervous.
It does not go as far as overriding the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), which those on the right of the party had called for.
Mr Sunak will hope to quell unrest when he holds a breakfast meeting with members of the New Conservative group – among those on the right aligned with the criticism of the ERG – in Downing Street ahead of Cabinet on Tuesday.
