At long last, the Maine boys’ basketball tournament is here.
Tournament time epitomizes everything we love about sports: the elite competition, the unpredictability, the heartbreak and the inspiring underdog stories. On any given day or night, any team can come out on top, but in the end the best team usually emerges as state champions.
From AA North to D North, here are our predictions for postseason action this February.
Class AA Boys
Players to watch: Sr. C Jeissey Khamis, Portland; Sr. G Leo McNabb, Cheverus; Sr. G Marshal Adams, Edward Little, Sr. G Quinton Lindsay, Windham; Sr. F Holden Shaw, Oxford Hills.
Favorites: The AA North boys’ tournament is going to be a dogfight between No. 1 Windham (16-2), No. 2 Cheverus (15-3) and No. 3 Portland (14-4), but the first-place Eagles ultimately have the best chance to advance to the state championship game. Windham gets a first-round bye, and will dodge the Stags or Bulldogs until the regional title game. The Eagles are well-balanced, synergistic and defensively sound; the only concern is their lack of playoff experience compared with Cheverus and Portland.
Darkhorse: Portland will have to get through Edward Little’s and Cheverus’ stacked backcourts to get to the regional championship game, but the Bulldogs have swept the Red Eddies this season, and are coming off wins over Cheverus on Feb. 8 and Windham on Jan. 25. Portland arguably also has AA North’s best player in versatile big man Jeissey Khamis (13.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 3.4 takeaways per game) and a fearsome No. 2 in senior guard Kevin Rugabirwa (14.3 points, 2.1 assists, 2.6 steals per game).
Prediction: Windham 56, Portland 54. Portland is the reigning regional champion, but Windham has been the best team in AA North all year, and with four double-digit scorers isn’t reliant on a single player to have a big game. Handling 6-foot-4, 240-lb. Khamis will be a tall task, so the AA North championship game will be a very interesting battle.
Class A Boys
Players to watch: Sr. G Evans Sterling, Mt. Blue; Jr. C Merrick Smith, Messalonskee; Sr. F JJ Wolfington, Hampden Academy; Sr. G Zach McLaughlin, Hampden Academy; Jr. F Dawson Townsend, Nokomis.
Favorites: As predicted, No. 3 Messalonskee (14-4) has become a monster down the stretch, winning its last seven in a row — including an 18-point win over No. 2 Mt. Blue on Jan. 23, and a 33-point win over No. 1 Hampden Academy on Feb. 1. Down low, 6-foot-10 junior center Merrick Smith has continued to develop his skill package and tap into his dominant nature, churning out 24 points, 14 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game this year. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ guard play in senior Sam Dube (14.0 ppg, 3.2 apg), junior Ty Bernier (15.1 ppg) and junior Drake Brunelle (7.0 apg, 6.3 rpg) has been equally as solid.
Dark horse: With a 16-2 record and the No. 1 seed, the Hampden Academy Broncos are Class A North’s dark horse candidate due to senior guard Zach McLaughlin’s recent heel injury. The all-Conference first-teamer is averaging 23 points, five rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, but hasn’t played since late January, and could potentially re-aggravate his injury in the first couple rounds. Right off the bat, Hampden will have to fend off No. 8 Skowhegan, who it split the season series with.
Prediction: Messalonskee 65, Hampden 60. Six-foot-10 is hard to beat, and the Eagles are rolling as of late. Hampden has been a consistent force led by the formidable senior duo of McLaughlin and forward JJ Wolfington, but the Eagles are slightly more experienced overall, and their 33-point win over Hampden two weeks ago speaks for itself.
Class B Boys
Players to watch: Sr. F Chance Mercier, Ellsworth; Sr. G Pierce Walston, Orono; Jr. F Emmitt Byther, Old Town; Sr. G Keagan McClure, Maranacook Community; Jr. F Tristan Robbins, Caribou.
Favorites: Class B North could go a million different ways, but in the end No. 3 Old Town has the clearest path to a regional title — No. 1 Ellsworth, reigning champs No. 4 Orono and No. 5 Caribou are all in the same half of the bracket, while Old Town just has to get through relatively unproven No. 2 Maranacook. The Coyotes have a synergistic and poised Big Three in senior Grayson Thibeualt (11.1 ppg, 5.8 apg), junior Emmitt Byther (15.1 ppg, 10.1 rpg) and senior Brendan Mahaney (11.1 points, 8.7 rpg), plus sharpshooters Aiden Gomm and Tyler Priest to keep defenses honest.
Darkhorse: Led by juniors Tristan Robbins (15.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and Kaymen Sargent (12.5 ppg, 4.5 apg), No. 5 Caribou (14-4) runs a fast-paced, well-balanced offense that can explode for 70 points on any given night. The Vikings are young and hungry, and have already taken games from Orono and Old Town this year.
Prediction: Old Town 54, Orono 51. The Coyotes (15-3) and Red Riots (15-3) are the two most star-studded, well-rounded teams in Class B North, and can beat you any way they need to. The archrivals have already treated us to two thrillers this year, and Old Town could take the season series 2-1 with a win in the regional championship game.
Class C Boys
Players to watch: So. G Mickey Fitzsimmons, Machias; Sr. G Ethan Daigle, Fort Kent, Sr. G Jeremy Turner, Calais; Sr. G Patrick Dagan, George Stevens Academy; Fr. F Cyran Ciarleglio, Hodgdon.
Favorites: Machias (14-4) is the No. 4 seed in Class C North, but has played the hardest schedule in the region this year, and has beaten No. 1 Calais twice already. Having graduated 1,000-point scorer Shane Feeney last spring, the Bulldogs have retooled with sophomore Mickey Fitzsimmons (18.4 ppg, 5.0 apg) and senior Bobby Richardson (16.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg) at the helm this year, and are primed to make another deep tournament run. On defense, the Bulldogs are only allowing 43.2 points per game, and on offense are scoring 63.5 ppg.
Darkhorse: No. 6 George Stevens Academy (14-4) has been knocking on the door for a few years now, and could finally break through to the Class C state championship game this season. Anything is possible with senior guard Patrick Dagan (19.5 points, 2.8 steals per game) on the floor, spearheading the Eagles’ No. 2 offense (64.9 ppg) in the region.
Prediction: Machias 59, Fort Kent 49. Machias and No. 2 Fort Kent (12-6) haven’t seen each other yet this year, but the Bulldogs appear to be better on both sides of the ball, and can derive scoring from too many different contributors.
Class D Boys
Players to watch: Sr. G Dylan Burpee, Southern Aroostook, Sr. G Jalen Reed, Bangor Christian; Sr. G Brevan Kenney, Jonesport-Beals; Sr. G Mason McDunnah, Schenck; Jr. F Owen Wyman, Schenck.
Favorites: Class D North has gone through back-to-back state champs Southern Aroostook the past two years, but this year the undefeated Schenck Wolverines will be the ones cutting down the nets. Schenck plays extremely unselfishly, commands a deep bench, has plenty of playoff experience and suffocates you on defense, allowing just 33.4 ppg while scoring 61.7 ppg. The Wolverines have already swept powerhouses Machias and Bangor Christian this year, while Southern Aroostook has shown cracks, finishing with six losses.
Darkhorse: If No. 4 Katahdin can get through Schenck in the regional semifinals, the 16-2 Cougars have a legitimate shot at winning the state championship. Katahdin is undefeated against Class D North opposition this year, and has already beaten reigning champ Southern Aroostook twice this season. Like Schenck, the Cougars are incredibly well-balanced, and have been playing lockdown defense, allowing just 37.7 ppg this year.
Prediction: Schenck 43, Bangor Christian 39. If their first two matchups this season have been any indication, a regional championship game between the No. 1 Wolverines and No. 2 Patriots is going to be a grindy, defensive masterclass. Both teams are extremely talented, but Schenck is undefeated for a reason.